A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
